My old buddy Nate Knapp, who posts over at Poke Salad, and I have a bet going: The Whiskey Cup. Whoever does the best picking all the Big 12 games across the season will be treated to a nice bottle of bourbon at the loser’s expense. To briefly summarize this week’s strategy, do I think there will be an upset this week? Yes. Do I think there might be multiple upsets? Yes. Am I picking an upset? No, I’m not. The only game that I think a Big 12 team has a greater than 50% chance of losing is West By-God Virginia in their road game against the Nittany Kitties. Of course, with my luck, this whole season will be the equivalent of Rosenkrantz and Guildenstern’s coin flips. “It’s a bold strategy Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for him.” Onward into the fog, err, picks.
BYU vs Sam Houston
I have BYU winning 42-17. Despite having what appears to be a rebuilding year, I think the altitude and thousands of Mormons on a sugar rush from their caffeine free Dr. Peppers will be enough to overcome Sam Houston Institute of Technology. Caleb Ettiene, former Poke and world’s largest human sieve, is now in Provo, so that might be interesting. Also, the Cougars have a running back named Miles Davis. If that young man ever makes it to the NFL and doesn’t play an imaginary trumpet for his touchdown dance, I’m gonna be real disappointed.
Baylor vs Texas State
Baylor 31-10
Arranda’s Bears had a disappointing season last year. Despite the loss of their enormous nose tackle Siaki Ika, and their penchant for a pro-style run game (I’m not a fan. I also don’t think Dom Richardson (yet another transferred former Poke) has any lead in his pencil) I think they will take care of business. Side-ish note: Dave Arranda’s assessment that he was “too lenient” with some guys last season is a bit eyebrow raising. Waco is infamous at this point for “leniency” with players.
Cincinnati vs Eastern KY
Cincinnati 42-21
Despite a myriad of question marks this year for the Bearcats (only ONE returning player on offense!) surely they can take care of a mediocre FCS team.
Houston vs UTSA
Houston 49-35
I think Holgorsen drinks just enough red bull and draws up just enough plays that look like a half-eaten plate of spaghetti to get the W here.
Iowa State vs N. Iowa
ISU 23-21
It’s really tempting to pick the upset here; ISU is reeling from their gambling suspension woes on top of what was already expected to be a down year. But N. Iowa just isn’t that good, going 6-5 in FCS ( I’m really curious how/why they only played 11 games) lat season.
Kansas vs Missouri State
Kansas 32-14
I think the Jayhawks have done a remarkable job of clawing their way from the scum beneath the bottom of the barrel to a respectable football team. Plus, Missouri State is not likely to have improved following the departure of everyone’s favorite motorcyclist.
Kansas State vs SE Missouri
K-State 45-17
The Wildcats were very good last season, although there are some decent-sized hurdles to overcome if they are to reload, but I don’t foresee any potential troubles starting in this game.
Oklahoma vs Arkansas State
OU 22-17
I hate the Sooners, but they’ll probably win this in a close one. Arkansas State is the Rodney Dangerfield of college football.
Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas
Pokes 42-10
I’m a lot more optimistic about the Pokes this season then Nate. Yes, the end of last season was lackluster at best, and there’s been considerable turnover, but I really like the changes Gundy has made with Nardo and the odd front as well as a return to the offensive schemes of yesteryear with going under center, tight ends, and a revamp of the O-Line’s blocking scheme. We have a favorable schedule, and I honestly don’t see us doing worse than 8-4 in the regular season. Despite some of the high flying offenses we’ve seen from OSU from say 2010-2020, Gundy really likes to run the ball. I’m banking on Gordon and/or Nixon to have a big year. If we get that going, it will take lots of pressure off the QB, whoever winds up getting off that carousel. I’m confident in either Bowman (he looked great against us when he played for Tech) or Rangel (I thought he looked good for a freshman in a horrible situation). I really want Gundy the Younger to be good, but having seen Barry Sanders’s kid look mediocre a few years back, I’m curious if his performance last year was typical or if he really did just pick a bad week to stop sniffing glue. Our receiving corps has loads of potential, but not much proven success except Brennan Presley. That said, I have lots of faith in Kasey Dunn’s ability to coach receivers, provided we stay healthy. We’re a lot deeper than we have been; I think we’re finally past the depth problems created by Dunn’s departure/sudden return turnaround that left a palpable hole in our receiver recruiting. I hope we solidly take care of business against Central Arkansas, but honestly, this could be one of those teams like the 2021 Pokes who just manage to claw their way through every game (Cabbiness is our hero).
TCU vs Colorado
TCU 35-13
Lots of eyeballs on this game for several reasons: can Sonny Dikes build on his meteoric first season? Can coach Prime make a winning team out of hired guns? How many toes will Neon Deion have left after this season? (I hear Vegas has the O/U at 7.5) As much as I love Deion Sanders (I once watched, from the first row of Texas Stadium no less, him return a punt for a touchdown against the Chicago Bears. I was close enough that I could see his eyes dart around scanning the field) I’m not terrible confident in his coaching abilities for two reasons: first, I don’t know if he has a deep enough knowledge of the Xs and Os. When he was on the Peyton and Eli show last season, he was asked about some sort of cover scheme and he replied something to the effect of, when he played for Dallas his game plan for the whole year was “a sheet of paper with sixteen dude’s pictures on it: that’s who you’re covering” Of course, I have no idea about Deion’s football IQ, he may well be the best in the business, but I am a bit concerned that his own athletic prowess may have led him to focus less on the strategy aspect of the game. Second, I don’t trust his concept that team building is a load of crap, and that all you have to do is put the best athletes on the field. If that approach worked, the University if Texas would have a lot more Football trophies. I think the Ted Lasso stuff is important. Lastly, this should be an interesting preview of the new Big 12.
Texas vs Rice
UT 55-10
I think Sark and Co. get the season off to a fast start, but I foresee QB trouble on the horizon. Last year there were times Ewers looked like he could aim at the ground and miss, and there are two highly hyped whippersnappers waiting in the wings. I also think that Bijan Robinson was actually underrated last season, so big shoes to fill there. I’m counting on some of the Texas boosters doing what they’ve done best for quite a while now and give the team a big dose of too many chiefs, not enough indians.
Texas Tech at Wyoming
Tech 60-21
Tech has a lot of upside going into this season. The only worrisome bits are their penchant for going for it on fourth down more times in a game than there are tortillas thrown onto the field, and a potential curse inducing induction of Mike Leach into their hall of honor. Trying to make nice with a dead guy who famously vowed to continue litigation with the university until he died (litigation which is continuing posthumously!) seems like all sorts of bad juju.
University of Central Florida vs Kent State
UCF 44-20
Probably the best of the four newcomers to the Big 12 this year, though I wonder if Malzahn’s offensive scheme in which almost every play involves some sort of option read on the QB’s part is profitable against modern collegiate defenses, especially if your QB is not named Cam Newton (need I remind anyone of the Mitch Mustain debacle?) For the most part, defenses are much better at keeping assignments and not over-pursuing than they were ten years ago. If Malzahn’s stuff really worked, he’d still be at Auburn. That said, the guy’s got lots of experience and should have no trouble recruiting. There’s some potential to make lots of noise in the new league going forward.
West Virginia at Penn State
Penn State 35-14
Although they beat both Oklahoma schools at the end of last season (I was at the game in Stillwater; it was miserable for reasons beyond the horrid weather) the Mountaineers are still at the bottom of this year’s 14 gallon barrel (I was going to say butt, but couldn’t make the joke work) Neal Brown’s seat is hotter than one of Morgantown’s famed flaming couches.